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SocGen Sees Big Unemp Rate Drop; JPM In Line On Job Gains

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

SocGen's forecast for a 0.3pp decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in November stands out vs a 4.5% consensus. They see this "on the basis of strong job gains" (albeit their 500k payrolls estimate is below-consensus), with service sector employment performing well ("particularly in entertainment and travel").

  • The main risk to their outlook is that more people will return to the workforce following the expiration of unemployment benefits, but SocGen does not see that as the key factor in low participation rates.

JPMorgan sees +550k payrolls growth (very close to consensus), with +530k private sector job gains in November.

  • They note that the ADP report "is not always a reliable predictor of the BLS data" but that this week's figure "does suggest that expectations for Friday are pretty reasonable."
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