SocGen's Yvan Mamalet puts forward a..........>

ITALY: SocGen's Yvan Mamalet puts forward a relatively upbeat message on Italy

despite the impending election, which he believe will result in a hung

Parliament.

- One principle argument that SocGen makes is that "Italy's primary balance

surplus (1.5% of GDP in 2016) is already well above the level that would

stabilise its debt (which we estimate at 0.6% of GDP). Even if interest rates

were to increase significantly, the amount of additional austerity required to

stabilise the debt ratio would remain modest, at just below 1% of GDP under a

300bp rate increase, compared with above 2% in France and Spain."