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Societe Generale view ahead of this week's MPC meeting

UK
  • SocGen notes that recent data has been better than the Bank had expected in May but as the furlough scheme rolls off there is growing "strong evidence of the massive increase in unemployment that, unfortunately, we expect, is unlikely to manifest itself until well into 4Q".
  • SocGen expects the MPC is "likely to sit pat…and delay that discussion until the next MPR meeting in November" with a unanimous vote for no change in policy.
  • On forecast presentation: "It is possible, but by no means certain, that the Bank might even follow many other central banks) and the OBR's lead with a set of scenarios."
  • On the ELB review: "There may be some reference to the continuing review of negative interest rate policy. That is likely to be completed by the November meeting."
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