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SOFR Futures Hold Strong Gains, Fed Chair Powell Q&A Underway

STIR FUTURES
  • Unsurprisingly, SOFR futures surged higher (SFRH4-SFRU4 +0.145-0.275) after the Fed announced steady rate decision. Markets appear to be ignoring comment the Fed is "prepared to tighten policy further, if appropriate" with SOFR Red pack (SFRZ4-SFRU5) up 0.325-0.375 at the moment.
  • Reiterating the Fed's commitment to "achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time and to keeping policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is on a path to that objective."
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 mostly steady: January 2024 cumulative -2.5bp at 5.307%, March 2024 chance of rate cut climbs to -62% vs. -41.6% this morning w/ cumulative of -18bp at 5.153%, May 2024 up to -79.2% vs. -59.3% this morning, cumulative -37.7bp at 4.956%, June'24 at -89.2% with cumulative at -60.6bp at 4.726%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
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