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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors
MNI POLITICAL RISK - Thune Eyes 'Deficit-Negative' Legislation
SOFR Futures Update: Chances of Hike in Jul or Sep Gaining
- SOFR futures are trading mostly weaker, carry over after last Friday's surge in May jobs (+339k vs. +195k est) and the Fed now in media blackout concerning monetary policy ahead next week's announcement.
- Front month Jun'24 SOFR futures are currently steady at 94.7225 even after 3M SOFR settled +0.02289 to 5.25323 (-.03340 total last wk). The balance of Whites (SFRU3-SFRH4) are trading -0.020-0.070, Reds through Golds (SFRM4-SFRMH8) are trading -0.080-0.050.
- Projected policy moves near steady for next week's announcement while chances for a hike in July or Sep gain slightly.
- Fed funds implied 25bp hike on the June 14 FOMC at 6.6bp, July cumulative +20.9 to implied rate of 5.293%. September cumulative at +19.1. Chances of a 25bp cut at year end continue to ebb with Dec'23 cumulative -5.4bp at 5.035, Jan'24 only pricing in 85% chance of a 25bp cut now. Fed Terminal at 5.295% in Aug'23 this morning.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.