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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
Today's German August IFO release provides another reminder that the "soft" data hasn't fully translated into weaker hard data in the Euro area just yet.
- The Eurozone industrial production index for the manufacturing industry actually picked up to a post-2017 high in June.
- However, the German IFO Manufacturing Expectations index has been firmly negative for the past six months (since February, the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict).
- Those expectations point to a substantial drop in Eurozone manufacturing output in H2 2022 to a degree not seen on a sustained basis since just after the global financial crisis (see chart).
- Loosening supply chain bottlenecks (as noted by IFO) could help provide some welcome relief, but energy woes, poor prospects for trade / demand, and broad inflationary pressures suggest that the "soft" data may not be exaggerating the potential for manufacturing downside.
Source: IFO, Eurostat, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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