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Soft European Data Aids Move Off Lows, Last Day Before FOMC Blackout

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade unchanged to 2bp richer, pulling back off overnight lows with assistance from softer than expected German PPI and notably so UK retail sales. 2s10s trades 2bps flatter on the day, with -22.5bp marking the middle to low end of the holiday-shortened week’s range.
  • TYH4 sits at 111-09 at typing (+ 02+) having lifted off an earlier low of 111-00, which pushed through both 111-06+ (Jan 5 low) and 111-02+ (50-day EMA) to open 110-16 (Dec 13 low) after the extension of the week's bearish move.
  • U.Mich inflation expectations and existing home sales provide data interest whilst Fedspeak is watched on the final day before the FOMC blackout starts tonight. More on Fedspeak in the STIR bullet.
  • Data: U.Mich Jan prelim (1000ET), Existing home sales Dec (1000ET), TIC Flows Nov (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee (’25) on CNBC at 0830ET, Daly (’24) on Fox at 1115ET, Barr (voter) bank supervision Q&A at 1300ET, Daly (’24) fireside chat (1615ET)

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