MNI BRIEF: Caixin June Manufacturing PMI Hits Three-year High

MNI BRIEF: Japan Q1 GDP Revised Lower On Public Investment

MNI BRIEF: Business Inflation Expectations Solid - BOJ Tankan

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY48 Bln Via OMO Mon; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1265 Mon; -0.32% Y/Y

Daily Average Exports Hold Close To Recent Highs, Trade Surplus Firms

CHINA JUNE CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 51.8 VS 51.7 IN MAY

MNI: BOJ Tankan: Sentiment Rises, Solid Capex Plans, Backs BOJ

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Soft Food Prices, "Noisy Factors" Eyed In Below-Consensus HICP (2/2)

EUROZONE

The following analysts are below-consensus on August HICP:

  • RBC: Core 5.2% Y/Y, Headline 5.2% Y/Y: Main downward contributions to come from food and manufactured goods inflation. Less encouragingly, services inflation is likely to prove more sticky, and may even reach a new record high. A 10% increase in French regulated electricity prices may also support energy inflation this month, although base effects will weigh on electricity and gas inflation elsewhere in the euro area. Looking ahead: Aug likely to prove to be the peak for services inflation which we expect to begin to moderate from September.
  • TD: Core 5.2% Y/Y, Headline 5.2% Y/Y: While continued soft momentum in food and core goods inflation should put further downside pressure, the recent surge in oil prices will keep headline inflation from falling much. Services inflation is still key for the ECB though, and here we see another strong m/m print, though base effects should push the y/y rate down a touch.
  • JPM: Core 5.1% Y/Y, Headline 5.2% Y/Y. ECB SA HICP 0.6% M/M; core 0.4% M/M JPM notes risks to their core forecast “are perhaps skewed a bit to the upside”. Note three noisy factors: upward base effect from German transport tickets, the weights distortion which is still upward (though likely limited impact in August and turning to a drag in Sept), and package holiday inflation being affected in annual terms by a structural break in the German series. “a new methodology is being used this year to collect prices, which causes noise in the annual comparison. This was a drag in July on the annual rate and we assume that this persisted in August.”
  • BofA: Core 5.1% Y/Y, Headline 5.2% Y/Y. Equates to CPI M/M of 0.5% (no core estimate)
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.