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Soft GDP/Core PCE Revisions For Q3

US DATA
  • Picking through some initially very misleading headlines on Bloomberg, GDP revisions were notably softer than expected.
  • Real GDP growth was revised down to 4.86% annualized in the third reading for Q3 (cons 5.2), fully unwinding its surprise upward revision to 5.15% in the second estimate.
  • However, whilst it’s back to where it was first indicated in the advance release, another downward revision for personal consumption leaves it at 3.1% (from 3.6% in the 2nd and 4.0% in the advance). That still marks a strong bounce from the 0.8% in Q2, which in turn followed 3.8%, with that pause coming with a rise in the savings ratio.
  • There was also a surprise drop in core PCE inflation, revised down further from 2.3% to 2.04% annualized (cons 2.3). Whilst only for Q3, with tomorrow’s monthly report showing how they were distributed in the quarter, it’s nevertheless a surprisingly large drop back to the 2% target.

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