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Soft GDP Revisions Promotes Modest Dovish Flow In UK STIRs

STIR

Pre-gilt trade sees a tick higher in SONIA futures, with the marks lower in final Q3 UK GDP data outweighing the impact of firmer-than-expected prints in the volatile retail sales series. That leaves the strip running flat to 3bp firmer through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 0.5-4.5bp lower through ’24 MPC meetings, with a cumulative ~146bp of cuts priced through the year on the whole, challenging the recent dovish extremes after CPI data reignited dovish flows earlier this week.
  • There isn’t much in the way of meaningful scheduled domestic risk events to flag ahead of the weekend.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.198+1.1
Mar-245.110-7.7
May-244.892-29.5
Jun-244.657-53.0
Aug-244.385-80.2
Sep-244.144-104.3
Nov-243.901-128.6
Dec-243.724-146.3
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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