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Soft ISM Prices Paid Of Note Within Manufacturing Report

US DATA
  • The ISM manufacturing index was softer than expected in June at 46.0 (cons 47.2) after 46.9.
  • The prices paid series was notable behind the miss, falling to 41.8 (cons 44.0) from 44.2 after what was a particularly heavy -9pt decline back in May.
  • It remains above the post-pandemic low of 39.4 from Dec’22 and compares with the 35.3 Apr’20 low, but is notable with the renewed push lower of services in recent months, which have been following the sizeable mfg declines seen in 2H22 with a lag – chart below.
  • Friday's MNI Chicago PMI provided a useful indicator here (and also for employment sub-component - separate bullet to come) as it fell by -7.4pts to 53.5, the lowest since April 2020. Only 29.2% of firms reported higher prices paid in June, the lowest since October 2020 and substantially lower than the peak of 86.1% experienced in June 2021.

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