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Soft Realized Retail Sales Outweigh Strong December Estimate

CANADA
  • The initial market reaction appears focused on the miss for finalized November retail sales rather than what looks like a surprisingly strong December advance estimate.
  • Nov sales -0.2% M/M (cons 0.0) and ex autos a notably soft -0.5% M/M (cons -0.1), both with downward revisions to October. Dec advance meanwhile suggests 0.8% M/M.
  • USDCAD at 1.347 sits 15pips higher than pre-data lows, 2-10Y yields drop 1.5-2bps on the release, outperforming Tsys in the process with the Can-US 2Y differential now 2bps lower on the day at -31.5bps.
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