US DATA
US retail sales printed on the weak side in February across headline and core measures in the advance estimate, compounded by downward revisions to January's figures.
- Overall retail sales rose 0.6% M/M (vs 0.8% survey, -1.1% prior reflecting downward revision by 0.3pp), with ex-auto/gas sales up 0.3% (in line with expectations, but prior -0.8% including -0.3pp revision).
- The GDP input Control Group saw flat growth versus expectations of +0.4%, though January's reading was upwardly revised 0.1pp to -0.3%.
- While retail sales rebounded from a weak January, the downward revisions ensured nominal sales in February remained below September 2023 levels - while "real" (CPI-deflated) sales have flatlined in the first 2 months of 2024 at levels last seen in Q2 2023.
- There were few standouts among retail sales categories, with improvements potentially reflecting both better weather in February vs January, and some upward inflationary effects (particularly for gasoline). Motor vehicle/parts dealer sales rose 1.6% (-2.1% prior), with building material sales up 2.2% (partly reversing January's sharp -4.3% drop), while gas stations posted a 0.9% rise (-1.4% prior).
- Food services/drinking places saw 0.4% growth after -1.0% in January, with food and beverage store sales up 0.1% after -0.3% prior.
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