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Softer Activity But No Relief On Pricing Front

NEW ZEALAND

The ANZ activity outlook for NZ in October deteriorated to -2.5 from -1.8 and business confidence to -42.7 from -36.7. While they have improved from their worst levels around the middle of the year, they are suggesting that growth likely slowed in the second half of 2022.

  • Inflation expectations were higher again in October but down 0.1pp from the July 2022 peak. Like the CPI, they suggest that inflation has probably peaked but remains elevated and that Q4 could see another strong result. Cost expectations eased slightly but are extremely high and 65% of those surveyed expect to increase prices (down 3pp).
  • Exports, employment, profits and investment all moderated in the October survey.
  • Residential construction bounced off its low but remains very subdued but at a more normal level.
  • ANZ noted that survey responses that came in after the Q3 CPI report were weaker on average, as more RBNZ hikes were expected. See ANZ Research note here.
NZ Inflation outlook

Source: MNI - Market News/ANZ/Refinitiv

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