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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUDNZD
AUD/NZD fell ~0.7% yesterday and currently deals a touch above $1.07. Despite the fall in the cross recent ranges have been respected, the 20-day bollinger band is at its thinnest point in 6 months as today's RBNZ rate decision looms.
- The RBAs decision to hold rates at 3.6% as well as water down hawkish guidance in the final paragraph of their statement to now note that further tightening "may" be needed weighed on the AUD.
- Rate differentials have marginally widened to sit at -150bps (on a 2yr swap basis), however we continue to remain above cycle lows of -160bps.
- Technically, the downtrend remains in place for now, bears target the 2023 low at $1.0667 a break through here opens 2022 lows at $1.0471.
- Bulls first look to sustain a break of the 20-Day EMA ($1.0746) to target the 200-Day EMA ($1.0880).
- At today's RBNZ meeting the bank is forecast to raise the OCR to 5.00% from 4.75%.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot, EMAs
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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