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Softer Than Expected Preliminary PMIs

US DATA
  • The S&P Global US PMIs were softer than expected in preliminary April data, with mfg at 49.9 (cons 52.0) after 51.9 and services at 50.9 (cons 52.0) after 51.7.
  • From the press release: "April saw an overall reduction in new orders for the first time in six months. Companies responded by scaling back employment for the first time in almost four years, with business confidence also waning to the lowest since last November."
  • Price pressures: "Rates of inflation generally eased at the start of the second quarter, with both input costs and output prices rising less quickly at the composite level. That said, manufacturing input cost inflation hit a one-year high."
  • “Service providers often noted higher staff and shipping costs, though reported the second-lowest overall cost increase for three-and-a-half years.”
  • “Prices charged inflation was in line with the series long-run average, though still elevated by pre-pandemic standards. Slower charge inflation was seen across both the manufacturing and services sectors.”
  • Builds on recent softening in other soft data indicators: The Fed’s Beige Book last week noted “another frequent comment was that firms’ ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months, resulting in smaller profit margins” whilst the March ISM Services release saw a surprise slide in prices paid from 58.6 to 53.4 for its lowest since the pandemic.

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