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Solid Data From China Support Crude As Fed Hike Fears Weigh On Market

OIL

Oil prices are off their Monday low but have been moving in a narrow range. Prices are up around 0.2% today after falling around 2% yesterday, supported by data showing solid growth in China following its reopening. Brent is trading around $84.90/bbl and WTI $80.95. The USD index is down slightly.

  • WTI rose to a high of $81.22 today after reaching a low of $80.71 earlier. Brent has had an intraday high of $85.20 which followed a low of $84.59. Both are hovering just above their 200-day simple moving averages.
  • China’s Q1 GDP rose a higher-than-expected 2.2% q/q to be up 4.5% y/y, the highest annual rate since Q1 2022, after 2.9% y/y in Q4, which is positive for the oil demand outlook. (See Consumers Support Q1 Growrh But Uncertainties Weigh On Outlook)
  • On the supply front, Russian oil shipments were back above 3mbd last week, according to Bloomberg. It had said that it would reduce output to the end of 2023. India has said that it will continue to demand Russian crude.
  • API US inventory data is released later and given the sensitivity of the market to supply developments is likely to be watched closely. Last week’s data showed a 377k barrel crude build, according to Bloomberg.
  • There are housing starts/permits data for March out in the US later, which are expected to decline on the month after a strong February. The Fed’s Bowman discusses central bank digital currencies as well. There is also UK wages/employment data and Canadian March CPI.
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