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Solid Rise In US Prime-Age Participation

DATA REACT
  • The unemployment rate was unchanged in May as household employment and the labour force grew in lockstep (+320k/+330k). That and the small tick higher in underemployment looks pretty solid considering what appears a healthier rise in participation than meets the eye.
  • Getting into the weeds… Headline participation increased a tenth as expected to 62.3% in May as it remains below March’s peak of 62.4% (1pt below the 63.4% pre-pandemic). It belies a more encouraging 0.2pt rise in prime-age participation to 82.6%, a new post-pandemic high which whilst 0.5pts off Jan/Feb’20 is back at mid-2019 levels.
  • The overall rate lags prime-age because 20-24yr olds have been leaving the labour force, down 1pt in the past four months as they potentially return to studies despite record job openings.

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