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Solid Yields Lead USD Index Toward Bull Trigger

FOREX
  • The greenback trades well headed into the Tuesday session, with the USD Index showing above last week's highs and narrowing the gap with the bull trigger at August 20th's 93.729. The greenback is following yields higher - as has been the case since the beginning of the week - with the 10y yield today already showing above 1.54% and the highest level since mid-June.
  • Bond strength comes alongside equity weakness, with core markets off around 1% or so. The risk-off theme has filtered into growth proxies and high beta FX, leading NZD to trade at the bottom of the pile alongside NOK (which trades off despite firm oil prices).
  • JPY is failing to benefit from the stock market weakness, keeping the USD/JPY uptrend intact as it targets the July highs of 111.66.
  • US trade balance data and the September consumer confidence release are the data highlights Tuesday, with appearances from ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel and Panetta due as well as Fed's Evans, Powell, Bowman and Bostic.
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