Some sell-side views of GDP (data due at 7:00BST)

Note consensus looks for a 0.9%Q/Q GDP print (0.0%M/M for March).

• Barclays: "We expect GDP in March to grow by 0.3% m/m... Barring any revisions to previous months, this print would be consistent with a 1.1% q/q print for Q1, in which we see private consumption at 1% q/q and investment at 2.5% q/q. We see risks tilted to the downside given that output in the health sector, which is likely to fall on the back of falling test, trace, and vaccination activity, may fall by more than we expect. Further, weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP prints out of Europe create downside risks."
• NatWest Markets: "We forecast UK GDP to rise by 0.1% m/m in March as business activity offsets softer output in consumer-facing sectors. This would yield respectable quarterly growth of 1.0% in Q1, though the underlying normalisation and moderation in the data suggest a significant slowdown in subsequent quarters (~¼% q/q)."
• Deutsche Bank: "We expect Q1-2022 GDP to expand by 0.9% q-o-q... (also in line with the Bank's recently upgraded projection). Risks are tilted to the upside, however, particularly given the wedge between different GDP approaches (expenditure vs output). The key thing to look out for will be household consumption and business investment in particular, which we expect will have material contributions to the quarterly print. Also keep an eye on stocks/inventories."
• Nomura: "March is the first full month after Russia invaded Ukraine, so there will be much focus on how these GDP figures reflect this. While the output index of the PMI manufacturing survey fell sharply in March that of services remained solid, suggesting that any decline in GDP in March could well be limited by the ongoing recovery of services from Covid. We forecast a 0.2% m-om fall in GDP and a 0.9% q-o-q rise during Q1 (the latter the same as the BoE’s latest view)."