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Some sellside views ahead of tomorrow's August GDP print

UK DATA
  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for 0.5%M/M.
  • Deutsche Bank: Forecast 0.3%M/M: "Risks to our forecast are tilted to the upside (modestly). We will be looking at three things in particular: first, how strong of a rebound do we get in the services sector? (our nowcast models point to only a modest bounce); second, will supply chain disruptions continue to hamper manufacturing? (we think yes with manufacturing shrinking again in August); and lastly, will the construction sector shake of its malaise despite sustained price pressures and labour/material shortages (we are far less optimistic on this)."
  • Barclays: Forecast 0.5%M/M "Driven by services (fc. 0.6%) as behaviour continued to normalise following the final removal of restrictions on 19 July. We expect IP to expand by 0.4% m/m, with weakness in manufacturing from supply-bottlenecks (in particular, motor vehicle production) likely to be offset by energy."
  • Morgan Stanley: Forecast 0.8%M/M: "We see a pick-up in the monthly pace of growth. We then expect growth to start normalising from September, as monthly activity reaches its pre-COVID-19 levels of activity. Supply chain disruptions will likely continue to weigh on manufacturing output, although we expect some bounce-back from a very weak July in sectors outside car production. Construction should bounce back on the month as well, we think, although labour shortages pose a downside risk"
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