SoMP Forecasts, Little Fresh New Information

The RBA quarterly SoMP hasn't provided much new fresh information, at least from an updated forecast standpoint (see this link).

• The near term GDP profile is lower for end 2023, 1.2% y/y (was 1.6% in Feb) but we knew this from RBA's monetary policy statement on Tuesday. The mid 2025 forecast was nudged up to 2.1% (from 1.7%), but this was also known.
• For the trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation we have seen slight downward revisions. End 2023 is now seen at 4.0% y/y (was 4.3% in Feb). The profile to mid 2025 was unchanged though.
• Headline CPI was revised in line with the RBA's Tuesday statement (to 4.5% y/y by year end (was 4.8%). Inflation returns to the top-end of the 2-3% target range by mid 2025.
• There were some changes re the cash rate assumptions the RBA was using to generate its forecasts. For this statement, "the RBA also assumes the cash rate is assumed to peak at around 3.75% per cent before declining to around 3 per cent by mid-2025."
• While in the prior statement the central bank noted, "The forecasts are conditioned on a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing."