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SONIA curve remains steeper at the front-end

UK

The SONIA curve remains steeper than at yesterday's close due to bigger moves at the very front-end as the market has reduced the probability of an intermeeting hike. The market is looking ahead to Pill's speech at 14:35BST / 9:35ET later today for more guidance.

  • The Sep-22 contract remains 38 ticks higher on the day at 96.90 (but had been as high as 96.95 earlier today).
  • The Sep-23 SONIA contract is now up 20.5 ticks on the day at 94.175 (off the highs of 94.255 earlier).
  • Gilts have seen a bumpy ride, with an initial rally in the first half hour of trading (futures up to 97.43), before reversing all those gains back to yesterday's close (96.16) and now we have moved higher again back to 96.65 at writing.
  • The 2s10s gilt curve continues to flatten too, from yesterday's low of -46.2bp to -18.1bp at writing.
  • 10s30s are also steepening, at 38.6bp at writing (the highest since 12 September) from yesterday's low of 9.4bp.
  • This morning's 10-year linker auction went well - which will probably provide some comfort to the gilt market.
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