July 26, 2024 06:52 GMT
SONIA futures a little lower; markets look to Reeves statement on Monday
SONIA
- SONIA futures have taken a cue from Euribor futures this morning, with Reds / Greens / Blues down by up to 1.5 ticks softer on the open (but Whites have seen less of a move).
- The main domestic news since yesterday's close has been widespread coverage ahead of Chancellor Reeves' statement to parliament on Monday. She report back on the state of the public finances as well as confirm the date of the Budget (we pencil in 30 October) and make an announcement on public sector pay (following the independent pay review body recommending doctors, nurses and teachers receive a higher-than-budgeted for 5.5% increase). Media reports have reported a shortfall of GBP19bln and across the spectrum (from the left-leaning Guardian to the right-leaning Telegraph) are noting that Reeves is likely to raise taxes in the autumn.
- There is little more on the domeestic calendar today with US PCE data the highlight on the external calendar. UK markets are therefore likely to keep an eye on politics ahead of next week's MPC meeting. A 46% probability of a 25bp cut is currently priced by markets with 99bp priced by June 2025.
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