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SONIA Futures Lower Alongside Core Bonds

STIR

SONIA futures are flat to -4.0 through the reds, with some weakness in wider core global FI markets setting the tone ahead of the gilt open.

  • BoE-dated OIS firms against this backdrop, but still prices close to 150bp of cuts through ’24.
  • Political posturing, along with speculation surrounding fiscal loosening and election timing, continue to do the rounds in the local press.
  • Elsewhere, the BRC shop price index held steady at +4.3% Y/Y in Dec. The details of the release noted that “food inflation fell for the eighth consecutive month thanks to retailers’ efforts to bring down prices in the run-up to Christmas… Non-food products had a more challenging December, with price inflation rising again following retailers’ investment in November Black Friday discounting and ahead of the January sales.”
  • Final manufacturing PMI data headlines the UK docket today.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.195+0.8
Mar-245.131-5.5
May-244.937-25.0
Jun-244.680-50.7
Aug-244.387-80.0
Sep-244.123-106.4
Nov-243.883-130.4
Dec-243.707-148.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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