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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
Accompanying the moves lower in Eurodollar futures are the SONIA and Euribor futures strips. Both are under pressure due to a combination of the risk-on moves in equities but also due to the large increase in European gas prices today.
- The SONIA futures strip is underperforming the Eurodollar strip with Whites down up to 3 ticks, Reds down 3.5-4.0 ticks and Greens/Blues down 5.5-7.5 ticks today. There is now a greater than 85% probability of a 25bp February hike priced in with further 25bp hikes fully priced by May and August.
- This contrasts with around an 85% probability of a hike by May in the US, two hikes fully priced by September and a third hike almost fully priced by February 2023.
- The Eurodollar strip is lower, but outperforming the Eurodollar and SONIA strips, seeing Reds down 2.0-2.5 ticks, and Greens/Blues down 3.0-3.5 ticks on the day. A first 10bp ECB hike isn't fully priced until December.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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