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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- The SONIA strip has seen the biggest moves so far today, with most of the strip outside the Whites generally 2-3 ticks higher on the day. This largely reverses the moves seen yesterday. Futures now see an implied cumulative peak of around of hikes 9bp priced in.
- SOFR futures are generally 1.5-2.0 ticks higher across the strip this morning. This partially retraces some of the moves seen yesterday where moves lower in Greens and Blues exceeded 10 ticks as expectations of cuts were pushed back. In focus today will be the release of US GDP and core PCE. Similar to SONIA, the implied cumulative peak sees around 9bp of hikes priced.
- The Euribor curve has seen the smallest moves today and remains largely flat (with some weakness in the Whites). The main focus for STIR markets will be whether the ECB hints at any cuts to come (although this is unlikely to be up for discussion yet). More likely to be discussed will be the outlook for PEPP - and to some extent reserve remuneration. The latter could also see potentially large impacts on Euro STIR markets. Futures price in unchanged rates at today's meeting and no more than a 15% cumulative probability of any rate moves until April.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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