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Sour China Data Undermines Commodity-Tied Currencies

FOREX
  • The greenback continues to bounce off the post-CPI lows, with the USD Index close to 1.5% off last week's lows. A sour set of economic data from China has prompted a wave of risk-off across currency markets. The price action has favoured the USD, JPY and CHF, with AUD and NZD the biggest losers in G10.
  • Both industrial production and retail sales data from China fell below expectations for June, with retail sales now in negative territory on a YTD basis. In response, the Chinese central bank cut both the 7-day reverse repo and the 1-year MLF rate by 10bps apiece, looking to arrest the slowing economy.
  • In response, the CNH is sliding, putting USD/CNH north of 6.78 and within range of next resistance at the 6.7954 August high. A clean break above here would be the highest level for the pair since early May.
  • Commodity- and high-beta currencies are sliding alongside the weakness in Chinese economic data, putting AUD/USD below 0.7050 and within range of 0.7030 support (23.6% retracement for the Jul - Aug upleg). CAD is exhibiting similar price action, with USD/CAD now just shy of the 1.2888 50-dma.
  • US Empire manufacturing crosses later today, with the index expected to slow to 5.0 from 11.1 prior. Canadian manufacturing sales also crosses as well as the NAHB housing market index. There are no notable central bank speakers due.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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