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SOUTH AFRICA: ENCA Projects ANC Support ~45%, Higher Than Earlier Projections

SOUTH AFRICA
Political Risk BulletBulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

South African broadcaster ENCA projects that the governing African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of a majority in the national vote for the first time since the end of apartheid. Notably, it projects ANC support coming in around 45%, higher than the 42% projected earlier this morning by the CSIR. The exact vote share the ANC recieves is likely to prove crucial. If it comes in around 45% it is likely that it could form a coalition with smaller parties in the National Assembly, ensuring broad policy continuity while offering relatively small concessions to other parties. 

  • However, if the ANC's vote share comes in around 42% then this option becomes more unlikely, if not impossible. This would force the ANC into coalition either with the liberal Democratic Alliance (the main opposition and the ANC's long-term adversary) or the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or MK of former President Jacob Zuma. The latter two options would risk notable market turbulence given their demands for nationalisation of banks and mines, interest rate caps, and land expropriation. 
  • With 13.99% of votes counted the ANC sits on 42.58% support, compared to 25.28% for the DA. Final results are not expected until Sunday 2 June. 
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South African broadcaster ENCA projects that the governing African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of a majority in the national vote for the first time since the end of apartheid. Notably, it projects ANC support coming in around 45%, higher than the 42% projected earlier this morning by the CSIR. The exact vote share the ANC recieves is likely to prove crucial. If it comes in around 45% it is likely that it could form a coalition with smaller parties in the National Assembly, ensuring broad policy continuity while offering relatively small concessions to other parties. 

  • However, if the ANC's vote share comes in around 42% then this option becomes more unlikely, if not impossible. This would force the ANC into coalition either with the liberal Democratic Alliance (the main opposition and the ANC's long-term adversary) or the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or MK of former President Jacob Zuma. The latter two options would risk notable market turbulence given their demands for nationalisation of banks and mines, interest rate caps, and land expropriation. 
  • With 13.99% of votes counted the ANC sits on 42.58% support, compared to 25.28% for the DA. Final results are not expected until Sunday 2 June.