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SOUTH AFRICA: Goldman Sachs Revise 2024 GDP Growth Forecast Lower

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Goldman Sachs revise their full-year 2024 GDP forecast lower from +1.5% to +1.2% on the back of the downside surprise to this morning’s Q1 figures. The data came in at +0.5% Y/Y, -0.1% Q/Q (Est: +0.8% Y/Y, +0.1% Q/Q).
  • Given broad weakness in domestic demand and the services sector as well as the easing supply-side constraint from electricity, Goldman Sachs interpret the growth weakness as cyclical and therefore contributing to a negative output gap. This contrasts to the SARB’s view that the output gap is essentially closed and that the bulk of the weakness in growth has been structural.
  • Goldman Sachs nonetheless note that the Q1 GDP release came as a meaningful downside surprise to the SARB’s forecast, a factor that may at the margin prompt a dovish revision to the Bank's output gap estimate.
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