MNI BRIEF: Japan August Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Aug CPI Rises To Half-year High At 0.6% Y/y

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY88 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0989 Mon; +3.38% Y/Y

CHINA AUG FOOD PRICES +2.8% Y/Y VS +0.0% Y/Y JUL

CHINA AUG CPI +0.6% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +0.7%; JUL +0.5% Y/Y: NBS

ECB Data Watch

MNI JAPAN Q2 GDP REV +0.7% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.8%; MEDIAN +0.8%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU Syndication; BoE APF Due Monday

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SOUTH AFRICA: How Are Two-Pot Withdrawals Measuring Up Against Expectations?

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Since the opening of two-pot pension withdrawals last week, Sanlam data offers us the most accurate picture of usage of the scheme: the asset manager reported 20,000 savings pots claims in the first two days of the scheme (vs. a monthly average of 7-8,000), with an average claim size of ZAR 20,000. Other fund administrators clearly saw solid demand, with several reports of system outages and tech issues on the surge in demand.
  • Absa see total claims of ZAR 80bln in the first year, Citi see post-tax withdrawals of ZAR 38bln, Stanlib expected ZAR 50bln (ZAR 40bln post-tax) while Sanlam say forecasting is “impossible”.
  • The changes are seen as positive for both GDP and tax revenues for this year – Stanlib upgraded their GDP view by 0.2ppts, and estimate revenues of ZAR 16bln, while Citi upgrades 2024/25 growth to 1.2% (+0.2ppts) and 2.0% (+0.3ppts) on the plans. The pensions reform is also a key support for JPM’s overweight South Africa call.
159 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Since the opening of two-pot pension withdrawals last week, Sanlam data offers us the most accurate picture of usage of the scheme: the asset manager reported 20,000 savings pots claims in the first two days of the scheme (vs. a monthly average of 7-8,000), with an average claim size of ZAR 20,000. Other fund administrators clearly saw solid demand, with several reports of system outages and tech issues on the surge in demand.
  • Absa see total claims of ZAR 80bln in the first year, Citi see post-tax withdrawals of ZAR 38bln, Stanlib expected ZAR 50bln (ZAR 40bln post-tax) while Sanlam say forecasting is “impossible”.
  • The changes are seen as positive for both GDP and tax revenues for this year – Stanlib upgraded their GDP view by 0.2ppts, and estimate revenues of ZAR 16bln, while Citi upgrades 2024/25 growth to 1.2% (+0.2ppts) and 2.0% (+0.3ppts) on the plans. The pensions reform is also a key support for JPM’s overweight South Africa call.