MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Weakness Deemed Corrective
Price Signal Summary – S/T GBP Weakness Deemed Corrective
- Last week’s move lower in S&P E-Minis highlighted the start of a corrective cycle. The contract remains in a bear-mode condition for now and scope is seen for a deeper retracement near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures reversed course last week and a bearish tone - a correction - remains intact for now. The move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Friday’s sharp sell-off signals scope for an extension lower and sights are on 4686.53.
- Friday’s gains in GBPUSD proved short-lived and the pair is trading closer to its Sep 3 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and firm support to watch lies at 1.3075, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Sights are on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 140.82. AUDUSD traded sharply lower Friday. The move down is - for now - considered corrective. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and this signals scope for an extension towards 0.6643, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a softer tone and last week’s impulsive sell-off reinforces the bear theme. The move lower resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12 and opens $66.66.
- Bund futures have gapped lower today and remain below Friday’s 134.81 high. The outlook remains bullish following last week’s rally and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Gilt futures traded higher last week, however, Friday’s price action was volatile. The contract has pierced a key resistance at 100.30, the Aug 14 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of uptrend and open the 101.00 handle.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1155/1202 High Sep 6 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1076 @ 06:02 BST Sep 09
- SUP 1: 1.1026 Low Sep 03
- SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0975 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
EURUSD traded in a volatile manner Friday. The pair remains below Friday’s high, however, a bullish theme is intact, following last week’s recovery from just below the 20-day EMA - at 1.1060 today. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a clear break of the 20-day EMA would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.0975.
GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support
- RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3238/3266 High Sep 06 / 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3115 @ 06:22 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 1.3088 Low Sep 03
- SUP 2: 1.3075 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3011 Low Aug 21
- SUP 4: 1.2951 50-day EMA
Friday’s gains in GBPUSD proved short-lived and the pair is trading closer to its Sep 3 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and firm support to watch lies at 1.3075, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising medium-term trend condition. The bull trigger is 1.3266, the Aug 27 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.8623 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8475 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8460 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8440 @ 06:430 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest shallow correction still appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. A break lower would open 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8460, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.
USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 149.32 50-day EMA 39
- RES 2: 145.78/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- RES 1: 144.23 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 142.91 @ 06:37 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 141.70 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 140.82 Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Sights are on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 140.82, the Jan 2 low. A firm resistance is seen around the 20-day EMA, at 145.78 today. For bulls, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 164.00 200 DMA
- RES 2: 163.81 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 161.23/162.89 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 158.28 @ 07:06 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 157.41 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 156.65 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
The trend outlook in EURJPY is bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 156.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 162.89, the Sep 2 high. First resistance is 161.23, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6767/6824 High Sep 6 / High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6664 @ 08:11 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 0.6643 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
- SUP 2: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
- SUP 3: 0.6587 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6565 Low Aug 12
AUDUSD traded sharply lower Friday. The move down is - for now - considered corrective. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and this signals scope for an extension towards 0.6643, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6767, the Jun 6 high. A break of this level is required to highlight a reversal and expose key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3646 High Aug 15
- RES 2: 1.3638 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3582 High Sep 06
- PRICE: 1.3567 @ 08:21 BST Sep 09
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05
Recent gains in USDCAD appear to be corrective and. Friday’s strong gains signal scope for an extension higher near-term. The latest recovery has exposed resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3638. A breach of the average is required to signal scope for a stronger bullish cycle. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.3441, the Aug 28 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) MA Studies Highlight An Uptrend
- RES 4: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 134.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 1: 134.81 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 133.96 @ 05:41 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 133.70/09 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures have gapped lower today and remain below Friday’s 134.81 high. The outlook remains bullish following last week’s rally and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 134.95 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 133.09, would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. First support is 133.70, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.130 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 120.000 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 119.810 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 119.410 @ 06:00 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 119.195 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - 6 rally
- SUP 2: 119.103 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 119.050 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 6 rally
- SUP 4: 118.870 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 6 rally
Despite the gap lower at today’s open, a bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact. Last week’s recovery is a positive development and key support has been defined at 118.580, the Sep 3 low. A resumption of gains signals scope for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.130, the Aug 5 high. On the downside, clearance of 118.580 would reinstate a bearish theme.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 107.373 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.047 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.005 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 106.870 @ 06:15 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 106.765 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 (cont)
An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact, despite today’s gap lower. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. The recovery last week is a positive development and signals the end of the recent corrective cycle, between Aug 5 - Sep 3. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 107.047, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, clearance of 106.520, the Sep 3 low would reinstate the recent bear cycle.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Pierces Key Resistance
- RES 4: 101.93 High Jan 4 (cont)
- RES 3: 101.46 High Aug 5 (cont)
- RES 2: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 100.60 HIgh Sep 6
- PRICE: 99.97 @ Close Sep 6
- SUP 1: 99.41 Low Sep 5
- SUP 2: 99.08 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 98.00 Round number support
Gilt futures traded higher last week, however, Friday’s price action was volatile. The contract has pierced a key resistance at 100.30, the Aug 14 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of uptrend and open the 101.00 handle. Moving average studies on the continuation chart remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 99.08, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Breaches The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 121.04 2.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 120.76 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 120.42 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 120.34 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 119.94 @ Close Sep 6
- SUP 1: 119.13/118.16 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.00 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 116.21 Low Jul 9
- SUP 4: 115.14 Low Jul 1
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce this theme and the move higher resulted in a breach of 119.90, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 120.42 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, reinforcing current trend conditions. Key support is at 118.16, the Sep 2 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4880.84/4998.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 4763.00 @ 06:35 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 4730.00 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 4686.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4612.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4558.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures reversed course last week and a bearish tone - a correction - remains intact for now. The move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Friday’s sharp sell-off signals scope for an extension lower and sights are on 4686.53, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. First resistance is at 4880.84, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and key resistance
- RES 1: 5544.68/5669.75 20-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- PRICE:5441.50 @ 07:53 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 5394.00 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 5367.50 Low Aug 13
- SUP 3: 5330.00 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5249.74 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
Last week’s move lower in S&P E-Minis highlighted the start of a corrective cycle. The contract remains in a bear-mode condition for now and scope is seen for a deeper retracement near-term. An extension lower would open 5330.00, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg. Key resistance has been defined at 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5544.68, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Southbound
- RES 4: $83.74 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 2: $78.47 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $76.38 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $71.69 @ 07:05 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: $70.61 - Low Sep 5
- SUP 2: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $68.99 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded lower again Friday, extending the latest bear cycle. Last week's move down resulted in a breach of $74.62, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in April and opens $70.35, a Fibonacci projection. A key support at $73.16, the Dec 13 ‘23 low, has also been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at $76.38, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- RES 3: $77.60 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $75.05 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $73.09 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.39 @ 07:22 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: $67.17 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.30 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.93 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures maintain a softer tone and last week’s impulsive sell-off reinforces the bear theme. The move lower resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12 and opens $66.66, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $73.09, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2489.5 @ 07:34 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: $2446.0 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8
- SUP 4: $2364.4 - Low Aug 5
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Furthermore, a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Sights are on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has recently been pierced. The next firm support to watch is $2446.0, the 50-day EMA. S/T weakness is considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: $28.874/30.192 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 26
- PRICE: $28.072 @ 08:27 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding. This has exposed key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI (LONDON)