SOUTH AFRICA: Inflation Data Released Soon, Headline Expected to Slow Marginally

Statistics SA is scheduled to release June CPI data at 09:00BST/10:00SAST, following last week's on-hold rate decision (vote split: 4-2, two dissenting votes for a 25bp cut) from the SARB. The median estimate for headline inflation in Bloomberg's survey is +5.1% Y/Y versus +5.2% recorded in May. Core inflation is expected to have stayed unchanged at +4.6% Y/Y.

• The Bureau for Economic Research expect to see a downtick in headline inflation rate to +5.1% Y/Y, with core unchanged at +4.6%. They think that "price pressure is set to slow further during the second half of the year, with CPI expected to average around 4.8% for the full year – down from 6% in 2023." They expect CPI inflation to reach the mid-point of the SARB's target by the end of Q3 and stay below that level through Q4.
• Nedbank expect inflation to print at +5.1% Y/Y, with M/M inflation slowing to +0.1% from +0.2% on the back of a decrease in fuel prices. However, they note that the "moderation in CPI will partly be contained by the adjustments in housing and utilities prices, domestic workers’ wages, public transport fares, and motor vehicle insurance, which were surveyed in June."