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SOUTH AFRICA: SARB Keeps Rates On Hold, President Outlines GNU's Plan Of Action

SOUTH AFRICA
  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%, in line with expectations, after a 4-2 vote. The two dissenters unsuccessfully sought a 25bp rate cut and their identity was not revealed. The inflation outlook has improved somewhat and is expected to average at +4.9% Y/Y this year (versus +5.1% pencilled in previously). The Governor said that headline inflation may fall below the +4.5% Y/Y target mid-point in the next few quarters, stabilising around that level over the medium term. The outcome was interpreted as taking South Africa closer to the first rate cut, which could be delivered as soon as in September. The central bank's next monetary policy meeting will be held on September 19, a day after the Fed's rate decision.
  • President Cyril Ramaphosa flagged infrastructure development, re-industrialisation and moving higher in the global value chains as key targets for his government of national unity (GNU) over the next five years. On the other hand, he said that his administration will try to promote inclusive growth and job creation. During his first policy speech at the opening of parliament, Ramaphosa outlined some specific measures as well, including the expansion of the list of food items exempted from VAT. He also said that his government will continue to implement National Health Insurance (NHI), while Democratic Alliance (DA) chief John Steenhuisen softened his language on the potential court challenge to the bill.
  • The National Treasury will hold and auction for linkers today.
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