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South Africa’s Budget Projections Appear Optimistic, Fitch Ratings Say

SOUTH AFRICA
  • The South African government’s latest fiscal projections indicate budget deficits for the next two years will be smaller than it had previously forecast, but the assumptions around revenue growth appear optimistic and state-owned enterprises are likely to require additional support that is not factored into the budget’s debt forecasts, says Fitch Ratings.
  • Consequently, their own fiscal projections remain more conservative than the government’s, even considering transfers from an account held with the South African Reserve Bank.
  • Fitch believe that the revised projections for revenue and the deficit for FY24 and FY25 are optimistic. When they affirmed South Africa’s rating at ‘BB-’ with a Stable Outlook in January 2024, they projected that the fiscal deficit would reach 4.8% of GDP in FY24 and 4.6% in FY25.
  • Click here to see the full report.
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