MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN NOV UNEMPLOYMENT 7.4%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SOUTH KOREA: IP Rises, But Y/Y Momentum Well Off Cycle Highs

SOUTH KOREA
GlobalEM BulletBulletSouth KoreaAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion

South Korea Industrial production for August was stronger than the consensus estimate. We rose 4.1% m/m, against a 2.8% forecast, while the July drop was revised down to -3.9% m/m. In y/y terms growth was 3.8%, also above expectations, but we are comfortably off cycle highs for the metric (+12.9%y/y printed in January this year). The cyclical leading index was -0.1, after a flat outcome in July. Like IP, it sits off its cyclical highs, but equally is not suggesting a sharp slowdown, see the chart below (the cyclical index is the orange line). 

  • IP is following the export trajectory reasonably closely, which in headline terms was softer in September but the daily average trend was still strong.
  • Other data showed retail sales 1.7% m/m, but this doesn't completely offset the July decline of 2%. Facilities investment fell a little over 5%, but this follows July's +10% rise.
  • BoK Governor Rhee, along with Finance Minister Choi will reportedly have a town hall meeting today (per BBG). This comes ahead of next week's BoK decision, where there will be some speculation that the central bank starts its easing cycle. 

Fig 1: South Korean IP & Cyclical Leading Index 

Keep reading...Show less
202 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

South Korea Industrial production for August was stronger than the consensus estimate. We rose 4.1% m/m, against a 2.8% forecast, while the July drop was revised down to -3.9% m/m. In y/y terms growth was 3.8%, also above expectations, but we are comfortably off cycle highs for the metric (+12.9%y/y printed in January this year). The cyclical leading index was -0.1, after a flat outcome in July. Like IP, it sits off its cyclical highs, but equally is not suggesting a sharp slowdown, see the chart below (the cyclical index is the orange line). 

  • IP is following the export trajectory reasonably closely, which in headline terms was softer in September but the daily average trend was still strong.
  • Other data showed retail sales 1.7% m/m, but this doesn't completely offset the July decline of 2%. Facilities investment fell a little over 5%, but this follows July's +10% rise.
  • BoK Governor Rhee, along with Finance Minister Choi will reportedly have a town hall meeting today (per BBG). This comes ahead of next week's BoK decision, where there will be some speculation that the central bank starts its easing cycle. 

Fig 1: South Korean IP & Cyclical Leading Index 

Keep reading...Show less