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ASIA
A slightly firmer PMI backdrop for South Korea and Taiwan points to some improvement in the global trade backdrop, all else equal. The chart below plots the average PMI readings for South Korea and Taiwan, overlaid against global trade volumes growth in y/y terms.
- The average PMI reading is now 49.15, aiding by the South Korea move back to 50 in Nov, while the Taiwan PMI rose back to near March highs from earlier this year.
- This fits with the earlier South Korea export beat for Nov, while Taiwan has also show some improving external demand signs, albeit with y/y growth still negative.
- The detail showed firmer new orders for South Korea, to the highest levels since July 2022. Output rose to 49.9 from 48.3 prior (BBG).
- For Taiwan, new orders fell versus the prior month, while output rose to 47 from 46.5.
- Other Asia PMIs were mostly higher, in Nov, albeit with only Indonesia and the Philippines above the 50 expansion/contraction point.
Fig 1: Average South Korea, Taiwan PMI Versus Global Trade Volumes Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/CPB/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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