December 03, 2024 02:28 GMT
SOUTH KOREA: The Dual Drivers for the Korean Bond Market in 2025.
SOUTH KOREA
- Today’s CPI release in Korea sees inflation remaining below the BOK’s 2% target indicating the need for further rate cuts in 2025.
- There may however be signs that inflation is stabilizing when looking at the release further.
- CPI less energy and food increased +1.9% y/y whilst a commonly followed cost of living index rose from +1.2% in October to +1.6%.
- It may be too soon to forecast that inflation is stabilizing but if it is, it may challenge the -88bps of rate cuts the market has priced over a in at present over a 1-year time horizon.
- An additional challenge for the bond market in 2025 is likely to come from the politicians where it seems that the opposition is opposing the KRW677 trillion budget, placing pressure on the current government.
- The budget proposed is a 3% increase in expenditure and likely to be funded via the bond market if approved.
- If signs of inflation stabilising are met with new budget approval, the usually flat Korean 3s10s curve has the potential to steepen in 2025.
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