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S&P 500 Futures Breach And Close Below Bear Trigger

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E-minis open on the backfoot in Asia-Pac hours, with the S&P 500 contract looking through Thursday’s low, albeit operating off worst levels at typing.

  • Outside of fundamentals (centred on worry re: the U.S. banking sector, as we covered earlier), Thursday’s move in S&P 500 e-mini futures breached key support at the Mar 2 low (3,925.00). This level is a bear trigger, and the break confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started on Feb 2. This exposes the Jan 19 low (3,901.75). A breach there, and of the nearby 3,900 level, would open the way to the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22-Feb 2 bull cycle (3,887.62).
  • Note that the contract has closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since mid-January.
  • There is plenty of event risk ahead of the weekend, headlined by the monthly NFP print out of the U.S (see our full preview of that event here) and the latest BoJ monetary policy decision (see our full preview of that event here). With focus also set to fall on headlines re: the U.S. banking sphere (Founders Capital has already advised companies to withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank, the name at the centre of Thursday’s tumult).

Fig. 1: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

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E-minis open on the backfoot in Asia-Pac hours, with the S&P 500 contract looking through Thursday’s low, albeit operating off worst levels at typing.

  • Outside of fundamentals (centred on worry re: the U.S. banking sector, as we covered earlier), Thursday’s move in S&P 500 e-mini futures breached key support at the Mar 2 low (3,925.00). This level is a bear trigger, and the break confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started on Feb 2. This exposes the Jan 19 low (3,901.75). A breach there, and of the nearby 3,900 level, would open the way to the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22-Feb 2 bull cycle (3,887.62).
  • Note that the contract has closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since mid-January.
  • There is plenty of event risk ahead of the weekend, headlined by the monthly NFP print out of the U.S (see our full preview of that event here) and the latest BoJ monetary policy decision (see our full preview of that event here). With focus also set to fall on headlines re: the U.S. banking sphere (Founders Capital has already advised companies to withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank, the name at the centre of Thursday’s tumult).

Fig. 1: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

Keep reading...Show less