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S&P Revise BP Outlook From Positive On Slower Debt Reduction

ENERGY SECTOR

New Profile A1[S]/A-[S]/A+[S]


  • Updated strategy of increasing buybacks from >60% to >80% of surplus cash flow limits meaningful deleveraging potential though is still commensurate with the A- rating.
  • Note weaker credit metrics than those of Chevron, Total and Shell; 42% adj-FFO/Debt vs. >75% for peers with the ratio seen averaging ~50% in 2024-2026 based on a USD 80/boe Brent assumption but dropping to 35-40% on a USD 55/boe assumption against upside/downside pressure thresholds of 45%/30%.
  • Op performance was broadly in line with expectations; S&P see solid 2024 performance with ample cash flow to cover divs/buybacks while increasing CapEx.
  • EUR spreads flat today; BP bonds have broadly underperformed peers QTD.

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