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S&P Revises Sovereign Rating Outlook to Negative On Growth Concerns

COLOMBIA
  • S&P’s decision to revise the outlook on Colombia’s BB+ rating to negative from stable reflected its concerns over the risk of a prolonged period of weak economic growth on the back of potentially persistently weak investor confidence. Disappointing economic growth, a wider current account deficit or a deterioration in the public finances could all prompt a downgrade over the next two years.
  • On a more positive note, yesterday’s economic activity data surprised to the upside in November, coming in at +0.9% m/m (sa), vs. -1.1% in October. Annual growth rose to +2.3%, vs. +1.2% expected, supported by stronger agricultural and service sector output. Nonetheless, economic growth is set to remain below potential, with consensus estimates at 1.6% this year (vs. 1.2% exp. in 2023). Given the ratings agency concerns this could prompt BanRep to step up the pace of monetary easing soon, potentially with a 50bp move at month end.
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