SPAIN DATA
Spanish August HICP confirmed flash estimates at 2.4% Y/Y, though services inflation remained stuck within this year’s 3.5-4.1% Y/Y range. This meant HICP inflation excluding unprocessed foods and energy products was steady at 2.9% Y/Y.
- Services inflation rose a tenth to 3.7% Y/Y (vs 3.6% prior). A rebound in recreation and culture inflation (2.4% Y/Y vs 1.9% prior) was driven by a 6.6% M/M rise in package holiday prices (which implied an annual rate of 5.5% Y/Y vs 2.4% prior).
- Restaurant and hotel inflation also remained sticky at 4.7% Y/Y (vs 4.8% prior).
- Looking ahead, the European Commission’s expected services price metric rose back above the YTD average in August, to 22.5 (vs 15.8 in July, 21.2 average in ’24).
- As with the wider Eurozone, Spanish core goods inflation ticked lower in August, to 0.6% Y/Y (vs 0.9% prior).
- Meanwhile, both processed and unprocessed food components disinflated, while energy inflation moved back into negative territory at -1.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior).
- MNI’s inflation breadth metrics were little changed in August, with 56% of ECOICOP components seeing annual inflation rates below 2% (vs 55% in July. This was nonetheless the highest proportion of below-target components since December 2021.
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