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Spain Inflation Preview: Acceleration On Energy Prices

EUROZONE DATA

Spain (11% of EZ HICP) – 0800UK Thu 28 Sep

Consensus expectations:

  • HICP: 3.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior); 0.6% M/M (vs 0.5% prior).
  • CPI: 3.5% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior); 0.2% M/M (vs 0.5% prior).
  • Core CPI: 6.0% Y/Y (vs 6.1% prior).

Energy prices are expected to be the main contributor to September inflation domestically (which will also push up the Euro-area headline rate). While energy still expected to fall Y/Y, a sequential monthly increase in electricity prices act as an offset.

  • Some analysts note that the clothing component will not see sequential monthly increases as large as usual in September, owing to a weak summer sales period and a basket reweighting effect.

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