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Spending Solid But Supported By Record Migration


Electronic card transactions rose 0.8% m/m and 3.3% y/y in November up from 1% y/y, while retail increased by a robust +1.6% but is only up 1.3% y/y. Retail was likely boosted by November’s cyber week sales. Spending is holding up but is signalling further slowing in Q4 to date. It has been supported by the increase in the population and so per person consumption is declining. The RBNZ remains concerned though about the inflationary impact of increased demand from higher migration.

NZ retail spending y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

  • Core retail spending rose 2.2% m/m with apparel up 5.2%, durables +0.9% and motor vehicles +1.4%. Services fell 0.5% m/m with hospitality spending up 5.1% y/y.
  • Net migration was 7810 in October with September revised up by 2500 to 10010. In the year to October, migration has added 130.8k to the population, the highest since the series began in 2001. The new government has stated that it plans to slow net inward migration.
NZ net migration 12m sum

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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