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KRW: Spot USD/KRW Likely To Break To Fresh Highs Since 2009

KRW
EM BulletBulletSouth KoreaAPACEmerging Market News

The 1 month USD/KRW NDF broke to fresh highs above 1457 late in US trade on Wednesday, as the hawkish Fed cut boosted USD sentiment more broadly. Earlier, spot USD/KRW closed near 1439, but early trends should see some catch up to the topside today. For the 1 month NDF post martial law headlines were above 1442, so the pair has now likely entered into a near higher range above this level. 

  • In terms of upside targets, spot is at risk of a clean break above 2022 highs (1444.5). This brings 2009 highs back into play from a technical upside target standpoint. These levels were close to 1600, before that round figure resistance is likely at 1500.
  • The authorities have already been on the wires this morning stating they will curb excessive volatility if needed. This comes after BoK Governor Rhee stated late yesterday they may continue to intervene in FX markets when necessary.
  • Such moves are unlikely to shift the USD/KRW trend though, where risks still rest for higher levels. Focus remains on the BoK meeting in January, but Governor Rhee wouldn't be drawn on a move in yesterday's comments, although did state a big cut was unlikely (presumably ruling out a 50bps move).
  • The local data calendar is empty today, although there is a National Pension Service Fund Management meeting, where FX hedging will be a focus point for the won.
  • The equity lead is clearly negative for the Kospi today, given Fed induced tech losses for US bourses. 
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The 1 month USD/KRW NDF broke to fresh highs above 1457 late in US trade on Wednesday, as the hawkish Fed cut boosted USD sentiment more broadly. Earlier, spot USD/KRW closed near 1439, but early trends should see some catch up to the topside today. For the 1 month NDF post martial law headlines were above 1442, so the pair has now likely entered into a near higher range above this level. 

  • In terms of upside targets, spot is at risk of a clean break above 2022 highs (1444.5). This brings 2009 highs back into play from a technical upside target standpoint. These levels were close to 1600, before that round figure resistance is likely at 1500.
  • The authorities have already been on the wires this morning stating they will curb excessive volatility if needed. This comes after BoK Governor Rhee stated late yesterday they may continue to intervene in FX markets when necessary.
  • Such moves are unlikely to shift the USD/KRW trend though, where risks still rest for higher levels. Focus remains on the BoK meeting in January, but Governor Rhee wouldn't be drawn on a move in yesterday's comments, although did state a big cut was unlikely (presumably ruling out a 50bps move).
  • The local data calendar is empty today, although there is a National Pension Service Fund Management meeting, where FX hedging will be a focus point for the won.
  • The equity lead is clearly negative for the Kospi today, given Fed induced tech losses for US bourses.