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Spread To Bunds Over 4bps Wider Today

BTP

The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has widened almost 4bps this morning, currently at 135.8bps (though down from an intraday high of 137.8bps). The spread is currently almost 20bps wider than the tightest levels seen in mid-March.

  • The widening has been broad-based across European peripherals, with today's Italian datapoints (ISTAT survey, PPI) not market movers.
  • We noted earlier global bond markets have been pressured by hawkish central bank speak from the Fed's Waller and BoE's Haskel, prompting peripheral underperformance.
  • BTP futures are -62 ticks at 118.85, off intraday lows after failing to make a clean break of the first support at 118.74 (the 20-day EMA).
  • The BTP cash curve has bear flattened alongside core peers, with cash yields 4 to 7bps higher on the day.
  • A reminder that March flash inflation is due tomorrow at 1000GMT/1100CET, with HICP expected at 1.5% Y/Y (vs 0.8% prior) and 1.4% M/M (vs 0.0% prior).

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