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Stability for US Rates Prompts Moderate USDZAR Recovery

ZAR
  • The continued recovery in major Chinese equities overnight and the unexpected switch of leadership at the CSRC has had little follow through to the rand, with the moderate bounce in USDZAR off the overnight lows instead following the slight move higher in US yields.
  • The local currency is among the poorest performers in the EMEA space having topped the pile yesterday. While USDZAR has faded off its intraday highs through the NY crossover, price sits roughly in the middle of the past week’s extremes overall.
  • Though this week’s breach of 19.00 proved to be short-lived, the sell-off in USDZAR is so far considered corrective from a technical perspective. Initial support to watch is at 18.5385, the Jan 12 low, a break of which would be a bearish development that could expose 18.1092, the Dec 15 low and key support. For bulls, sights are on 19.2180, the Jan 22 high.
  • Given the thin local data slate, attention will turn to speeches from Fed's Kugler, Collins, Barkin and Bowman of the FOMC.
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