MNI BRIEF: Fed Review Must Incorporate Many Scenarios - Kugler

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Kugler Says Makes Sense To Hold For Some Time

MNI BRIEF: Job On Inflation Not Done, Care Needed - BOE Pill

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 3.59% In January

MNI BRIEF: Tariffs Force CBRT To Hike 2025 Inflation Forecast

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 7

MNI: US DEC CONSUMER CREDIT +$40.8B

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 586; OIL RIGS 480; GAS RIGS 100

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 249; OIL RIGS 177; GAS RIGS 72

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CZECHIA: Staff Flag US Policy As Key Source Of Uncertainty

CZECHIA
EM BulletCzech RepublicBulletEmerging Market NewsCentral and Eastern EuropeCzechia

The CNB discusses its new macroeconomic forecast during the ongoing meeting with analysts, confirms that the balance of risks to the baseline scenario is slightly inflationary. The key source of uncertainty are the policies of the new US administration. Staff also discuss a scenario analysis conducted while preparing the updated forecast.

  • The first scenario assumes higher services and food prices and implies that CPI inflation would be 0.5pp higher at the end of this year, resulting in a slowed reduction in interest rates.
  • The second scenario assumes higher domestic inflation and an economic downturn in the eurozone, which would have stagflationary implications for Czechia, resulting in a steeper (initially more hawkish, then more dovish) interest-rate path.

 

Keep reading...Show less
126 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The CNB discusses its new macroeconomic forecast during the ongoing meeting with analysts, confirms that the balance of risks to the baseline scenario is slightly inflationary. The key source of uncertainty are the policies of the new US administration. Staff also discuss a scenario analysis conducted while preparing the updated forecast.

  • The first scenario assumes higher services and food prices and implies that CPI inflation would be 0.5pp higher at the end of this year, resulting in a slowed reduction in interest rates.
  • The second scenario assumes higher domestic inflation and an economic downturn in the eurozone, which would have stagflationary implications for Czechia, resulting in a steeper (initially more hawkish, then more dovish) interest-rate path.

 

Keep reading...Show less