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Statement Avoids More Hawkish Rate Guidance

FED

The decision is basically in line with expectations (though only 2 distinct levels of caps in the ramp-up period, as opposed to 3); bills to make up remainder of room left under Tsy caps.

  • Statement doesn't really get more hawkish from last time: does NOT alter language on "anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate" (some had seen this being altered to specify a more "expedient" or "front-loaded" pace).
  • The opening paragraph of the statement acknowledges the weak Q1 GDP growth figure, but notes that household spending and business investment remained strong; notes job gains have been "robust" (rather than "strong" in previous statement).
  • Adds discussion of COVID lockdown in China, hawkish on this front, notes "likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions" and that the FOMC "is highly attentive to inflation risks".
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