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Statistics Poland Revises 2022 GDP Estimate, 2023 Investments Higher

POLAND

Statistics Poland revised the estimate of Poland's 2022 GDP growth to +5.6% Y/Y from +5.3% Y/Y (per its February report), while leaving the estimate of 2023 growth unchanged at +0.2% Y/Y. Click here to see the full report.

  • Pekao point to a notable adjustment to the investment trajectory. While the update from Statistics Poland suggests that investments were lower in 2022, the estimate for 2023 was revised higher to +13.1% Y/Y from +8.4% Y/Y.
  • They note that the revision is consistent with the EU investment cycle, with Poland rushing to spend the remainder of aid from the 2014-2020 round of EU funding before its expiry at the end of last year.
  • This leads Pekao to remain cautious about this year's GDP growth prospects - they expect the economy to expand by 3.0% Y/Y in 2024 amid rising consumption and disappointing investments.
  • They note that the 2023 GDP estimate remained unchanged despite stronger investments, because these investments were import-intensive.
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